Back-to-school shopping starts earlier and costs more

“We may see record back-to-school spending, but that doesn’t mean families feel comfortable with how much they are going to spend,” said Thomas McMillan, professor of practice in marketing and director of the Center for Retailing Innovation at Texas A&M University’s Mays Business School. “The basics are going to cost a little bit more, and that’s squeezing the total budget of a family.”

According to the National Retail Federation, the average K-12 family is expected to spend around $863.86 on back-to-school items, up from $858.07 in 2025. McMillan said higher prices driven by inflation, tariffs and a rise in oil prices mean many families are likely to prioritize essentials, wait for promotions and decide what items can be reused from previous years.

The shopping season itself has also changed.

“We’re seeing big sales like Amazon Prime Day start in June,” he said. “This season will also go later than usual because there’s a second wave of shopping that takes place after the school year starts, when people start getting specific requests for classroom supplies, oftentimes from teachers.”

The hidden costs after school starts

For many families, buying school supplies is only the beginning.

McMillan describes the additional expenses that arrive after classes begin — including extracurricular activities, meal programs, fundraisers and other school fees — as a hidden “second bill” that can significantly affect household budgets.

“The second hidden bill is the list of all the fees they’re going to have to pay once school starts,” he said. “Once the school year begins, and they start racking up costs with that hidden second bill, some parents may have no plans for it and just have to spend what they have, or they’re going ahead and planning for it now because they know it happens each and every year.”

Moving a child into college can also force many parents to make decisions on essentials alongside school supplies.

“If you think about moving a college student into a dorm or to an apartment, they are essentially starting a new residence, so families have to plan for all the essentials, including bedding, furniture, home products — everything you would need to start a household,” he said. “That’s why college shopping is a large part of that back-to-school shopping. The amount of money that families have to spend in order to move their student into a new place is substantial.”

The NRF projects per person spending on college shopping to reach $1,437.79 this year.

AI and social media reshape shopping lists

Technology is also playing a larger role in how families shop.

McMillan said many consumers are using artificial intelligence to compare prices, research products and build shopping budgets, while AI-powered recommendations can also influence what ends up in their carts.

“Families can use AI to help them compare prices, learn more about different types of products and even help them budget for back-to-school shopping,” he said. “On the flip side, you have the AI making specific recommendations of products, and AI, having context of the individual and their specific requests, makes an impact on the types of items being bought. Depending on the AI, they could be sending specific links for products.”

Social media and influencers are having a similar effect. McMillan said parents are likely to shop from two lists: the official school list and the wish list shaped by friends, influencers and social media.

“You’ll see specific channels are major drivers of spending, like Instagram and TikTok. They’re very influential, especially for the younger generation going back to school,” he said. “There’s always a school list, but there’s also going to be a wish list. On the school list, you may see a backpack, but a student might want a specific name brand of backpack they want because they’ve seen their friends talk about it on social media, and that’s the wish list at work.”